{"id":32192,"date":"2024-10-17T13:27:02","date_gmt":"2024-10-17T13:27:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enago.com\/academy\/kr\/?p=32192"},"modified":"2024-10-17T13:27:02","modified_gmt":"2024-10-17T13:27:02","slug":"p-value-and-p-hacking","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enago.com\/academy\/kr\/p-value-and-p-hacking\/","title":{"rendered":"P\uac12\uc744 \ucad3\ub294 \uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4: \ud1b5\uacc4\uc801 \uc720\uc758\uc131\uacfc P\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9\uc758 \uc704\ud5d8\uc131"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;\" class=\"sharethis-inline-share-buttons\" ><\/div><p>\uc5f0\uad6c \ubd84\uc57c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ud1b5\uacc4\uc801 \uc720\uc758\uc131\uc774 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \uc911\uc694\ud55c\uc9c0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ubc30\uc6c1\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud1b5\uacc4\uc801 \uc720\uc758\uc131\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 p\uac12(p-value, \uc720\uc758\ud655\ub960)\uc774 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uc911\uc694\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc5ec\uae30\uc5d0\uc11c \u2018p\u2019\ub294 \u2018\ud655\ub960(probability)\u2019\uc744 \ub73b\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c p\uac12\uc774 0.05 \ubbf8\ub9cc\uc774\uba74 \uc720\uc758\ubbf8\ud55c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uac04\uc8fc\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. p\uac12\uc774 \uc791\uc744\uc218\ub85d \uacb0\uacfc\uac00 \ub354 \uc720\uc758\ubbf8\ud558\ub2e4, \uc989 \uc911\uc694\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc774 \ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc800\ub110\uc740 \ud1b5\uacc4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc720\uc758\ubbf8\ud55c \ud6a8\uacfc\ub97c \ud558\ub098 \uc774\uc0c1 \ubcf4\uace0\ud55c \ub17c\ubb38\uc744 \ucd9c\ud310(\uac8c\uc7ac)\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc77c\ubc18\uc801\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uae30\uc900\uc740 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc790\uc5d0\uac8c \uc720\uc758\ubbf8\ud55c \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \ub3c4\ucd9c\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc5c4\uccad\ub09c \uc555\ubc15\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \ub54c\ub54c\ub85c \uc6d0\ud558\ub294 \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \uc5bb\uae30 \uc704\ud574 p\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9(p-hacking, p-\ud574\ud0b9)\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ubd80\uc815\ud589\uc704\uc5d0 \uc758\uc874\ud558\uae30\ub3c4 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ud1b0(Tom)\uacfc \ub9ac\uc0ac(Lisa)\ub77c\ub294 \ub450 \uba85\uc758 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc790\uac00 \ub098\ub208 \ub300\ud654\ub97c \uc5ec\uae30\uc5d0 \uc18c\uac1c\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub300\ud654 \uc8fc\uc81c\ub294 \ud1b5\uacc4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc720\uc758\ubbf8\ud55c \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \ub3c4\ucd9c\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc555\ubc15\uac10\uacfc \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc555\ubc15\uac10\uc774 \uacfc\ud559\uc758 \ubb34\uacb0\uc131\uc5d0 \uc5b4\ub5a4 \ud574\ub97c \ub07c\uce60 \uc218 \uc788\ub294\uc9c0\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_74 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"\ubaa9\ucc28 \ud1a0\uae00\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.enago.com\/academy\/kr\/p-value-and-p-hacking\/#%ED%86%B5%EA%B3%84%EC%A0%81_%EC%9C%A0%EC%9D%98%EC%84%B1%EC%9D%84_%EC%B6%94%EA%B5%AC%ED%95%B4%EC%95%BC_%ED%95%9C%EB%8B%A4%EB%8A%94_%EC%95%95%EB%B0%95%EA%B0%90\" >\ud1b5\uacc4\uc801 \uc720\uc758\uc131\uc744 \ucd94\uad6c\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc555\ubc15\uac10<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.enago.com\/academy\/kr\/p-value-and-p-hacking\/#P%EA%B0%92_%ED%95%B4%ED%82%B9\" >P\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/www.enago.com\/academy\/kr\/p-value-and-p-hacking\/#P%EA%B0%92_%ED%95%B4%ED%82%B9%EC%9D%98_%EC%9C%A0%ED%98%95\" >P\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9\uc758 \uc720\ud615<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.enago.com\/academy\/kr\/p-value-and-p-hacking\/#P%EA%B0%92_%ED%95%B4%ED%82%B9%EC%9D%B4_%EB%B6%88%EB%9F%AC%EC%98%A4%EB%8A%94_%EA%B2%B0%EA%B3%BC\" >P\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9\uc774 \ubd88\ub7ec\uc624\ub294 \uacb0\uacfc<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.enago.com\/academy\/kr\/p-value-and-p-hacking\/#P%EA%B0%92_%ED%95%B4%ED%82%B9_%EB%B0%A9%EC%A7%80\" >P\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9 \ubc29\uc9c0<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/www.enago.com\/academy\/kr\/p-value-and-p-hacking\/#%EC%9C%A0%EC%9D%98%EC%84%B1%EC%9D%B4_%EB%B6%80%EC%A1%B1%ED%95%9C_%EA%B2%B0%EA%B3%BC_%EC%B2%98%EB%A6%AC\" >\uc720\uc758\uc131\uc774 \ubd80\uc871\ud55c \uacb0\uacfc \ucc98\ub9ac<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%ED%86%B5%EA%B3%84%EC%A0%81_%EC%9C%A0%EC%9D%98%EC%84%B1%EC%9D%84_%EC%B6%94%EA%B5%AC%ED%95%B4%EC%95%BC_%ED%95%9C%EB%8B%A4%EB%8A%94_%EC%95%95%EB%B0%95%EA%B0%90\"><\/span>\ud1b5\uacc4\uc801 \uc720\uc758\uc131\uc744 \ucd94\uad6c\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc555\ubc15\uac10<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\ud1b0: \u201c\uc774 \ubc29\ubc95\uc744 \uc81c\ub300\ub85c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub098 \ubd10\uc694! \uc720\uc758\ubbf8\ud55c \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \uc5bb\uc5b4\uc57c \ud558\ub294\ub370 p\uac12\uc774 0.8 \uc815\ub3c4\uc608\uc694. \uc81c\uac00 \ubb58 \uc798\ubabb\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \uac78\uae4c\uc694?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\ub9ac\uc0ac: \u201c\ud504\ub85c\ud1a0\ucf5c\uc740 \ud655\uc778\ud574 \ubd24\uc5b4\uc694?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\ud1b0: \u201c\ub124, \ud504\ub85c\ud1a0\ucf5c\uc740 \ubb38\uc81c \uc5c6\uc5c8\uc5b4\uc694. \uc9c0\ub3c4\uad50\uc218\ub2d8\uc740 \uc774 \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \uc601\ud5a5\ub825 \uc788\ub294 \uc800\ub110\uc5d0 \ucd9c\ud310\ud558\uace0 \uc2f6\uc5b4 \ud558\uc138\uc694. \uadf8\ub807\uac8c \ub418\uba74 \ub2e4\uc74c \ud504\ub85c\uc81d\ud2b8\uc5d0 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud560 \uc5f0\uad6c\ube44\ub97c \ud655\ubcf4\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \ub3c4\uc6c0\uc774 \ub420 \ud14c\ub2c8\uae4c\uc694. \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc9c0\uae08 \uc5bb\uc740 \uacb0\uacfc\ub294 \ud1b5\uacc4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc720\uc758\ubbf8\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc544\uc694. \uadf8\ub798\uc11c \ubc29\ubc95\uc744 \ubc14\uafd4\ubcfc\uae4c \uc0dd\uac01 \uc911\uc774\uc5d0\uc694.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\ub9ac\uc0ac: \u201c\uc5b4\ub5a4 \uc2dd\uc73c\ub85c \ubc14\uafd4\ubcf4\ub824\uace0\uc694?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\ud1b0: \u201c\ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ub354 \ub9ce\uc774 \uc218\uc9d1\ud558\ub824\uace0 \ud574\uc694. \uc774\uc0c1\uce58\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\ub294 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\ub294 \uc0ad\uc81c\ud560 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\uc5b4\uc694. \uc798\ubabb\ub41c \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub77c\uace0 \ud655\uc2e0\ud558\uac70\ub4e0\uc694! \uadf8\ub7ec\uace0 \ub098\uba74 \ub2e4\ub978 \ubc29\ubc95\uc73c\ub85c \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ubd84\uc11d\ud574 \ubcfc \uc218 \uc788\uaca0\uc8e0.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"P%EA%B0%92_%ED%95%B4%ED%82%B9\"><\/span>P\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\ub9ac\uc0ac: \u201c\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uadf8\ub7ec\ub294 \uac74 p\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9\uc774 \uc544\ub2cc\uac00\uc694?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\ud1b0: \u201cp\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9\uc774 \ubb54\ub370\uc694?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\ub9ac\uc0ac: \u201cp\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9\uc740 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc790\uac00 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ubcf8 \ud6c4 \uc720\uc758\ubbf8\ud55c \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \uc5bb\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc758\ub3c4\ud574\uc11c\ub4e0 \uc758\ub3c4\uce58 \uc54a\uac8c\ub4e0 \uc5b4\ub5a4 \uc120\ud0dd\uc744 \ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \ub9d0\ud574\uc694. \ubc29\uae08 \ub2f9\uc2e0\uc774 \uc5b8\uae09\ud55c \uac83\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uc120\ud0dd\uc774\ub098 \uc870\uc815\ub3c4 p\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9\uc5d0 \ud3ec\ud568\ub3fc\uc694. \uc774\uc0c1\uce58\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\ub294 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\ub97c \uc0ad\uc81c\ud558\uac70\ub098 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ubd84\uc11d \ubc29\uc2dd\uc744 \ubcc0\uacbd\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \uc608\ub85c \ub4e4 \uc218 \uc788\uc8e0.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\ud1b0: \u201cp\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \ucc98\uc74c \ub4e4\uc5b4\ubd10\uc694.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\ub9ac\uc0ac: \u201c\uc544\uc2dc\ub2e4\uc2dc\ud53c, \ub0ae\uc740 p\uac12\uc744 \ub3c4\ucd9c\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc555\ubc15\uac10\uc774 \ud074 \uc218\ub294 \uc788\uc5b4\uc694. \ud1b5\uacc4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc720\uc758\ubbf8\ud55c \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \ub3c4\ucd9c\ud55c \uc5f0\uad6c\uac00 \uadf8\ub807\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud55c \uc5f0\uad6c\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ucd9c\ud310\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud6e8\uc52c \ub354 \ub192\uc73c\ub2c8\uae4c\uc694. \uc774\ub294 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc790\uac00 \ubc1b\ub294 \uc5f0\uad6c\ube44\ub294 \ubb3c\ub860\uc774\uace0 \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c\uc758 \uacbd\ub825\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc9c1\uc811\uc801\uc778 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce60 \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4\uc694. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub2c8 \ub0ae\uc740 p\uac12\uc744 \uc5bb\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc5f0\uad6c \ubd80\uc815\ud589\uc704\ub97c \uc800\uc9c0\ub974\uace0 \uc2f6\ub2e4\ub294 \uc720\ud639\uc774 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \ud074 \uc218 \uc788\uc8e0.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"P%EA%B0%92_%ED%95%B4%ED%82%B9%EC%9D%98_%EC%9C%A0%ED%98%95\"><\/span>P\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9\uc758 \uc720\ud615<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\ud1b0: \u201c\ubd80\uc9c0\ubd88\uc2dd\uac04\uc5d0\ub77c\ub3c4 p\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9\uc744 \uc800\uc9c0\ub974\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc73c\ub824\uba74 p\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc790\uc138\ud788 \uc54c\uc544\ub46c\uc57c \ud560 \uac83 \uac19\uc544\uc694. \ud301\uc744 \uc880 \uc54c\ub824\uc904 \uc218 \uc788\ub098\uc694?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\ub9ac\uc0ac: \u201cp\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9\uc740 p\uac12\uc774 0.05 \uc774\ud558\uc778 \uacbd\uc6b0\uac00 \ub9ce\uc544\uc694. \uc5f0\uad6c\uc790\uac00 \uc720\uc758\ubbf8\ud55c \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \uc5bb\uace0 \ub098\uba74 \u2018\uc870\uc815\u2019\uc744 \uc911\ub2e8\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\uc6b0\uac00 \ub9ce\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\uc5d0\uc694. p\uac12 \ud074\ub7ec\uc2a4\ud130\uc5d0\uc11c p=0.05 \uc804\ud6c4\ub77c\uba74 p\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9\uc774 \uc788\uc5c8\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud574\uc694. \uadf8\ub807\uc9c0\ub9cc \ub2e4\ub978 \uc720\ud615\uc758 p\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9\uc740 \ub354 \ubc1c\uacac\ud558\uae30 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6b8 \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4\uc694.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\ud1b0: \u201c\uc5b4\ub5a4 \uc720\ud615\uc774 \uc788\ub294\ub370\uc694?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\ub9ac\uc0ac: \u201c\uccab \ubc88\uc9f8 \uc720\ud615\uc740 \u2018<a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.discovermagazine.com\/neuroskeptic\/2015\/05\/18\/p-hacking-a-talk-and-further-thoughts\/#.XPFiRqbTUdV\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\">\uc624\ubc84\ud574\ud0b9(overhacking)<\/a>\uc774\uc5d0\uc694.\u2019 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc790\uac00 \ub354 \ub0ae\uc740 p\uac12\uc744 \uc5bb\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uacc4\uc18d \ud574\ud0b9\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \uc624\ubc84\ud574\ud0b9\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ud574\uc694. 0.05 \ubbf8\ub9cc\uc758 \uac12\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud574\ub3c4 \uba48\ucd94\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 \ud574\ud0b9\uc744 \uacc4\uc18d\ud558\uc8e0. p\uac12\uc774 \ub0ae\uc744\uc218\ub85d \uc124\ub4dd\ub825 \ub192\uc740 \uacb0\uacfc\uc784\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\uc5d0\uc694.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\ud1b0: \u201c\uadf8 \ubc16\uc5d0 \ub610 \uc5b4\ub5a4 \uc720\ud615\uc774 \uc788\uc744\uae4c\uc694?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\ub9ac\uc0ac: \u201c\ub2e4\uc74c \uc720\ud615\uc740 \uc120\ud0dd \ud3b8\ud5a5(selection bias)\uc774\uc5d0\uc694. \uc5f0\uad6c\uc790\uac00 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ub2e4\ub978 \ubd84\uc11d\uc744 \uc218\ud589\ud558\uac70\ub098 \ub2e4\ub978 \ubcc0\uc218\ub97c \ubd84\uc11d\ud55c \uacb0\uacfc \uc11c\ub85c \ub2e4\ub978 p\uac12\uc744 \uac16\uac8c \ub418\ub294 \uacbd\uc6b0\ub97c \uc120\ud0dd \ud3b8\ud5a5\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ud574\uc694. \uadf8\ub807\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc120\ud0dd \ud3b8\ud5a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 0.05 \ubbf8\ub9cc\uc778 p\uac12\uc774 \uc5ec\ub7ec \uac1c \uc788\uc5b4\ub3c4 \uac00\uc7a5 \ub0ae\uc740 p\uac12\ub9cc \uc120\ud0dd\ud574\uc11c \ubc1c\ud45c\ud558\uc8e0. \uc774\ub807\uac8c \ud558\uba74 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc815\ud655\ud55c \uadf8\ub9bc\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \uac70\uc608\uc694.<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\uc138 \ubc88\uc9f8 \uc720\ud615\uc740 \uc120\ud0dd\uc801 \ub514\ubc84\uae45(selective debugging)\uc774\uc5d0\uc694. \uc5f0\uad6c\uc790\uac00 \uc801\ud569\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740 \ud1b5\uacc4 \ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub97c \uc120\ud0dd\ud558\uac70\ub098 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ucf54\ub529\uc5d0 \ubb38\uc81c\uac00 \uc788\uc73c\uba74 \u2018\ubc84\uadf8\u2019\uac00 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4\uc694. \uc5f0\uad6c\uc790\ub294 \ud56d\uc0c1 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc624\ub958\ub97c \uc7a1\uc544\ub0bc \uc218 \uc788\ub3c4\ub85d \ub178\ub825\ud574\uc57c \ud574\uc694. \uc120\ud0dd\uc801 \ub514\ubc84\uae45\uc740 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc790\uac00 \uc720\uc758\ubbf8\ud55c \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \uc5bb\ub294 \ub370 \ub3c4\uc6c0\uc774 \ub420 \ub54c\ub9cc \ubc84\uadf8\ub97c \uc218\uc815\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \ub9d0\ud574\uc694. \uc77c\ub2e8 \uc720\uc758\ubbf8\ud55c \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \uc5bb\uace0 \ub098\uba74 \ub354 \uc774\uc0c1 \ubc84\uadf8\ub97c \ucc3e\uac70\ub098 \uc218\uc815\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \uac70\uc8e0.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\ud1b0: \u201c\uadf8 \ub9d0\uc740 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc790\uac00 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.enago.com\/academy\/why-false-positive-results-are-harmful-to-scientific-research\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\uc704\uc591\uc131<\/a> \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \ub0b4\ub294 \ubc84\uadf8\ub97c \uace8\ub77c\uc11c \uc120\ud0dd\ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc778\uac00\uc694?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\ub9ac\uc0ac: \u201c\ub9de\uc544\uc694.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"P%EA%B0%92_%ED%95%B4%ED%82%B9%EC%9D%B4_%EB%B6%88%EB%9F%AC%EC%98%A4%EB%8A%94_%EA%B2%B0%EA%B3%BC\"><\/span>P\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9\uc774 \ubd88\ub7ec\uc624\ub294 \uacb0\uacfc<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\ud1b0: \u201c\uc5f0\uad6c\uc790\uac00 p\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9\uc744 \ud558\ub2e4\uac00 \uc801\ubc1c\ub418\uba74 \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \ub418\ub098\uc694?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\ub9ac\uc0ac: \u201cp\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9\uc740 \uc2ec\uac01\ud55c \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \ucd08\ub798\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4\uc694. p\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9\uc744 \ud558\uba74 \ud574\ub2f9 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc758 \uac00\uce58\uac00 \ud6fc\uc190\ub3fc\uc694. \uadf8\ub7ec\uba74 \uc800\ub110\uc5d0\uc11c \uc758\uc2ec\uc2a4\ub7ec\uc6b4 \ub17c\ubb38\uc744 \ucca0\ud68c\ub2f9\ud558\uace0 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc5d0 \uc9c0\uc6d0\uc744 \ubc1b\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\uac8c \ub418\ub294 \uc0ac\ud0dc\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4\uc694.\u00a0 p\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9\uc740 \uadc0\uc911\ud55c \uc2dc\uac04\uacfc \ub3c8\uc744 \ub0ad\ube44\ud558\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4dc\ub294 \uac74 \ubb3c\ub860\uc774\uace0 \uacfc\ud559\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc77c\ubc18 \ub300\uc911\uc758 \uc2e0\ub8b0\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub5a8\uc5b4\ub728\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4\uc694.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\ud1b0: \u201c\uc815\ub9d0 \uc2ec\uac01\ud55c \ubb38\uc81c\ub124\uc694. p\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9\uc740 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \ud754\ud558\uac8c \uc774\ub8e8\uc5b4\uc9c0\ub098\uc694?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\ub9ac\uc0ac: \u201c\uc77c\ubd80 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 p\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9\uc774 \ub9cc\uc5f0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\uc5b4\uc694. p\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9\uc740 \uba54\ud0c0\ubd84\uc11d\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc2ec\uac01\ud55c \ubb38\uc81c\uac00 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4\uc694. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \ubd84\uc11d\uc744 \ud558\ub824\uba74 \uc774\uc804 \uc791\uc5c5\uc5d0 \uc758\uc874\ud558\uac8c \ub418\uc8e0. \uc774\uc804 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc5d0\uc11c p\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9\uc774 \uc774\ub8e8\uc5b4\uc84c\ub2e4\uba74 \uadf8 \uc5f0\uad6c \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \uc7ac\ud604\ud558\ub294 \uac8c \ubd88\uac00\ub2a5\ud574\uc694. <a href=\"https:\/\/osf.io\/ezcuj\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\">2015\ub144\uc758 \ud55c \uc5f0\uad6c<\/a>\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 100\uac1c\uc758 \uc5f0\uad6c \uadf8\ub8f9\uc5d0 \uc694\uccad\ud574\uc11c \uc120\ud589 \uc5f0\uad6c \uacb0\uacfc 100\uac00\uc9c0\ub97c \uc7ac\ud604\ud574 \ubcf4\ub3c4\ub85d \ud588\uc5b4\uc694. \uc774 \uc911 \uc81c\ub300\ub85c \uc7ac\ud604\ub41c \uac83\uc740 40\uac00\uc9c0\uc5d0 \ubd88\uacfc\ud588\uc5b4\uc694. \ub2e4\ub978 60\uac00\uc9c0\ub294 \uc7ac\ud604 \uacb0\uacfc\uac00 \uac70\ub454 \ud6a8\uacfc\uac00 \ucd08\uae30 \uc5f0\uad6c \uacb0\uacfc\uc5d0 \ube44\ud574 \ud6e8\uc52c \ubbf8\ubbf8\ud588\uc5b4\uc694.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"P%EA%B0%92_%ED%95%B4%ED%82%B9_%EB%B0%A9%EC%A7%80\"><\/span>P\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9 \ubc29\uc9c0<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\ud1b0: \u201cp\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9\uc774 \uc65c \ubb38\uc81c\uac00 \ub418\ub294\uc9c0 \uc774\ud574\ud588\uc5b4\uc694. \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \ud558\uba74 p\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9\uc744 \ubc29\uc9c0\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc744\uae4c\uc694?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\ub9ac\uc0ac: \u201cp\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9\uc744 \ubc29\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \uac00\uc7a5 \uc88b\uc740 \ubc29\ubc95\uc740 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ubcf4\uace0 \ub098\uba74 \uadf8 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ubcc0\uacbd\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \uac70\uc608\uc694. \ubb3c\ub860 \uc720\ud639\uc5d0 \uc800\ud56d\ud558\uae30\uac00 \uc27d\uc9c0\ub294 \uc54a\uaca0\uc8e0! \uc774\ub7f0 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc0ac\uc804 \ub4f1\ub85d\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud574 \ubd10\ub3c4 \uc88b\uc544\uc694. \uc0ac\uc804 \ub4f1\ub85d \ub2e8\uacc4\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\ub824\ub294 \ud1b5\uacc4 \ubd84\uc11d\uc744 \ud3ec\ud568\ud558\uc5ec \uc0c1\uc138\ud55c \uc5f0\uad6c\uacc4\ud68d\uc744 \uc900\ube44\ud574\uc694. \uadf8\ub7f0 \ub2e4\uc74c\uc5d0 \uc774 \uacc4\ud68d\uc744 <a href=\"https:\/\/osf.io\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow noreferrer\">\uc624\ud508 \uc0ac\uc774\uc5b8\uc2a4 \ud504\ub808\uc784\uc6cc\ud06c(Open Science Framework, OSF)<\/a> \uac19\uc740 \uc628\ub77c\uc778 \ub4f1\ub85d\ucc98\uc5d0 \uc81c\ucd9c\ud574\uc694. \uc0ac\uc804 \ub4f1\ub85d\ud574 \ub454 \uc0c1\ud0dc\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5f0\uad6c \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \ucd9c\ud310\ud558\uac8c \ub418\uba74 \ub204\uad6c\ub098 \uc0ac\uc804 \ub4f1\ub85d \uacc4\ud68d\uacfc \ube44\uad50\ud574\uc11c \uc5f0\uad6c \ubc29\ubc95\uc744 \ud655\uc778\ud574 \ubcfc \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4\uc694. \uc774\ub807\uac8c \ud558\uba74 \ub370\uc774\ud130 p\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9\uc774 \ud6e8\uc52c \ub354 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6cc\uc9c0\uc8e0.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\ud1b0: \u201c\uc88b\uc740 \uc0dd\uac01\uc774\ub124\uc694. \uadf8\ubc16\uc5d0 \ub610 \ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc77c\uc774 \uc788\uc744\uae4c\uc694?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\ub9ac\uc0ac: \u201c\uc791\uc5c5\uc744 \ubbf8\ub9ac \uacc4\ud68d\ud574 \ub450\uace0 \uadf8 \uacc4\ud68d\uc744 \ucda9\uc2e4\ud788 \uc9c0\ud0a4\uae30\ub9cc \ud558\uba74 \ub3fc\uc694. \uc9c4\uc9dc \uc2e4\uc218\ub97c \uc800\uc9c8\ub800\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \uae68\ub2ec\uc558\uc744 \ub54c\ub9cc \ubcc0\uacbd\ud558\uc138\uc694. \ub610\ud55c \uc790\uc2e0\uc774 \ud55c \uc791\uc5c5\uc744 \uc7ac\ud604\ud574 \ubcfc \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\uc5b4\uc694.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%EC%9C%A0%EC%9D%98%EC%84%B1%EC%9D%B4_%EB%B6%80%EC%A1%B1%ED%95%9C_%EA%B2%B0%EA%B3%BC_%EC%B2%98%EB%A6%AC\"><\/span>\uc720\uc758\uc131\uc774 \ubd80\uc871\ud55c \uacb0\uacfc \ucc98\ub9ac<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\ud1b0: \u201c\uc720\uc758\ubbf8\ud55c \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \uc5bb\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ubc29\ubc95\uc744 \ubc14\uafb8\uba74 \uc548 \ub41c\ub2e4\ub294 \uac74 \uc798 \uc54c\uaca0\uc5b4\uc694. \uadf8\ub807\ub2e4\uba74 \uc81c \uc791\uc5c5\uc744 \ucd9c\ud310\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc77c\uae4c\uc694?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\ub9ac\uc0ac: \u201c\uaf2d \uadf8\ub7f0 \uac74 \uc544\ub2c8\uc5d0\uc694. p\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9\uc774 \ub354 \ub110\ub9ac \uc54c\ub824\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c \uc800\ub110\uc5d0\uc11c \uc720\uc758\ubbf8\ud55c \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \ub35c \uc120\ud638\ud558\uac8c \ub420 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\uc5b4\uc694. \uc800\ub110\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0ac\uc804 \ub4f1\ub85d \ud50c\ub7ab\ud3fc\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud574\uc11c \ub3c4\uc6c0\uc744 \uc904 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\uace0\uc694. \uc5f0\uad6c\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \uc5f0\uad6c \uacc4\ud68d\uacfc \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc218\uc9d1\uc758 \uc9c8\uc5d0 \ucd08\uc810\uc744 \ub9de\ucd94\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \ubb3c\ub860\uc774\uace0 \ub2e4\ub978 \uc720\ud615\uc758 \ud1b5\uacc4 \ubd84\uc11d\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud574 \ubcfc \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\uaca0\uc8e0.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\ud1b0: \u201c\ub3c4\uc640\uc918\uc11c \uace0\ub9c8\uc6cc\uc694!\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\ud1b5\uacc4\uc801 \uc720\uc758\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc790\uc138\ud55c \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc740 \uc774 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.enago.com\/academy\/statistical-significance-a-term-of-the-past\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\uae30\uc0ac<\/a>\uc5d0\uc11c \ud655\uc778\ud558\uc2e4 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. p\uac12 \ud574\ud0b9\uc744 \uc811\ud574 \ubcf4\uc2e0 \uc801\uc774 \uc788\ub098\uc694? \uc544\ub798 \ub313\uae00\ub85c \uc5ec\ub7ec\ubd84\uc758 \uc0dd\uac01\uacfc \uacbd\ud5d8\uc744 \ub098\ub220\uc8fc\uc138\uc694.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\uc5f0\uad6c \ubd84\uc57c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ud1b5\uacc4\uc801 \uc720\uc758\uc131\uc774 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \uc911\uc694\ud55c\uc9c0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ubc30\uc6c1\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud1b5\uacc4\uc801 \uc720\uc758\uc131\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 p\uac12(p-value, \uc720\uc758\ud655\ub960)\uc774 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uc911\uc694\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. 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