{"id":3836,"date":"2019-01-18T11:24:39","date_gmt":"2019-01-18T11:24:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enago.com\/academy\/kr\/?p=3836"},"modified":"2020-10-28T05:14:11","modified_gmt":"2020-10-28T05:14:11","slug":"should-researchers-include-a-confidence-index-of-their-results","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enago.com\/academy\/kr\/should-researchers-include-a-confidence-index-of-their-results\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc5f0\uad6c \uacb0\uacfc\ubb3c\uc5d0 \uc2e0\ub8b0\ub3c4\uc9c0\uc218 \ub354\ud558\uae30"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;\" class=\"sharethis-inline-share-buttons\" ><\/div><p>\ud604\ub300 \uacfc\ud559\uc5f0\uad6c\uc758 \ubc1c\uc804\uc740 \uc5f0\uad6c \uc7ac\ud604\uc131\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uacac\uace0\ud55c \ud1a0\ub300 \uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\ub2a5\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc5f0\uad6c \uc124\uacc4, \ubc29\ubc95, \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc218\uc9d1 \ubc0f \ubd84\uc11d\uc0c1\uc758 \ud22c\uba85\uc131 \ud655\ubcf4 \uc678\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ub2e4\ub978 \uacfc\ud559\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \uac19\uc740 \uc5f0\uad6c\ub97c \uc7ac\ud604\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4\uc57c \ud568\uc740 \uacfc\ud559\uc5f0\uad6c\uc758 \uc2e0\ube59\uc131\uc744 \ubcf4\uc7a5\ud568\uc5d0 \uc788\uc5b4 \ub300\ub2e8\ud788 \uc911\uc694\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \ud604\uc7ac \uc9c4\ud589 \uc911\uc778 \uc5f0\uad6c \uc7ac\ud604\uc131 \uc704\uae30\ub294 \uacfc\ud559\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \uc9c4\uc2e4\uc131\uacfc \uc815\uc9c1\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc911\ub300\ud55c \uc704\ud611\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud55c \uc608\ub85c \uc138\uacc4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uba85\uc131\uc774 \ub192\uc740 \ub124\uc774\ucc98 \ud559\uc220\uc9c0\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2e4\ud589\ud55c \uc124\ubb38 \uc870\uc0ac\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 70%\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ud558\ub294 \uacfc\ud559\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \ub2e4\ub978 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc790\ub4e4\uc758 \uc2e4\ud5d8\uc744 \uc7ac\ud604\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\uc5c8\uace0, \ub354\uc6b1\ub354 \ub180\ub77c\uc6b4 \uac83\uc740 \uacfc\ud559\uc790 \uc911 \uc808\ubc18\uc740 \uc790\uc2e0\ub4e4\uc758 \uc2e4\ud5d8\uc870\ucc28 \uc7ac\ud604\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\uc5c8\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc790\uc2e0\uc758 \uc5f0\uad6c \uacb0\uacfc\ubb3c\uc744 \ud1b5\uacc4\ud559\uc801 \uc720\uc758 \ud655\ub960(p-value)\ub85c \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc774\uc81c \ud754\ud55c \uacfc\ud559\uc801 \uad00\ud589\uc774 \ub418\uc5c8\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc7ac\ud604\uc131 \uc704\uae30\ub294 \ud1b5\uacc4\ud559\uc801 \uc720\uc758 \ud655\ub960\uac12\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uac83\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c \ucda9\ubd84\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc90d\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ud574\uc11d\uc5d0 \uc788\uc5b4 \ud22c\uba85\uc131\uc744 \ub354\ud558\ub294 \ub2e4\ub978 \ubc29\ubc95\uc740 \uc2e0\ub8b0\ub3c4\uc9c0\uc218 (confidence index)\ub97c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c\uc11c, \uc774\uac83\uc740 \uc5ec\ub7ec\ubd84\uc758 \uc5f0\uad6c \uacb0\uacfc\ubb3c\uc774 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc77c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc54c\ub824\uc8fc\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub85c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<div id=\"om-lnxxsd1o8mo9xsqgant8-holder\"><\/div>\n<p><script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/a.opmnstr.com\/app\/js\/api.min.js\" data-campaign=\"lnxxsd1o8mo9xsqgant8\" data-user=\"41855\" async><\/script><\/p>\n<h2><strong>\uc2e0\ub8b0\ub3c4\uc9c0\uc218\uc758 \uc815\uc758<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>\ud604\ub300 \uacfc\ud559\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2e4\ud5d8\uc744 \uc2e4\ud589\ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \ubcf4\ud1b5 \ubaa8\uc9d1\ub2e8\uc73c\ub85c\ubd80\ud130 \ubb34\uc791\uc704\ub85c \ucd94\ucd9c\ud55c \ud45c\ubcf8\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc778\uc704\uc801\uc778 \ucc98\uce58\ub098 \uce58\ub8cc\ub97c \ud558\uace0, \uadf8\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \ud6a8\uacfc\ub098 \ubc18\uc751\uc744 \uac80\uc0ac\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \uc758\ubbf8\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc5ec\uae30\uc5d0\uc11c \ubaa8\uc9d1\ub2e8\uc774\ub780 \uc5f0\uad6c\ud558\uace0\uc790 \ud558\ub294 \ub300\uc0c1, \uc989 \uc0ac\ub78c\uc774\ub098 \ud56d\ubaa9 \ub610\ub294 \uc0ac\uac74\uc758 \ucd1d\uc9d1\ud569\uc744 \uc758\ubbf8\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub860\uc0c1 \uc804\uccb4 \ubaa8\uc9d1\ub2e8\uc758 \ubaa8\ub4e0 \uad6c\uc131\uc6d0\uc744 \uac80\uc0ac\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc774\uc0c1\uc801\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \uadf8\ub807\uac8c \ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \ud3b8\ub9ac\ud558\uac70\ub098 \uc2e4\uc6a9\uc801\uc774\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uc54a\uace0 \ub610\ud55c \ub300\ubd80\ubd84\uc758 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uc54a\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uc804\uccb4 \ubaa8\uc9d1\ub2e8\uc744 \uac00\uc7a5 \uc798 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0bc \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ud45c\ubcf8\uc744 \ubb34\uc791\uc704\uc5d0 \uc758\ud558\uba70 \uc801\uc808\ud55c \ud06c\uae30\ub85c \uc218\uc9d1\ud558\uc5ec \ubd80\ubd84\uc9d1\ud569\uc73c\ub85c \uc0bc\uc544 \uc2e4\ud5d8\uc744 \uc2e4\ud589\ud558\uac8c \ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub807\uac8c \ud45c\ubcf8\uc774 \ubb34\uc791\uc704\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc218\uc9d1\ub418\uc5c8\uc73c\uba70 \ucda9\ubd84\ud788 \ud074 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ud45c\ubcf8\uc5d0\uc11c \uc218\uc9d1\ud55c \uc815\ubcf4\ub97c \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\uc5ec \ubaa8\uc9d1\ub2e8\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud6a8\uacfc\ub098 \ubc18\uc751\uc744 \ucd94\ub860\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uc5f0\uad6c\uc790\ub294 \ubaa8\uc9d1\ub2e8\uc744 \ub300\ud45c\ud558\ub294 \ud45c\ubcf8(\uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uba74 \uc784\uc0c1 \uc2dc\ud5d8 \ucc38\uc5ec\uc790)\uc774 \ubb34\uc791\uc704\ub85c \ubf51\ud614\uc73c\uba70, \uadf8 \ud06c\uae30\uac00 \ubaa8\uc9d1\ub2e8\uc744 \ub300\ud45c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc744 \uc815\ub3c4\ub85c \uc544\uc8fc \ud06c\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \ud655\uc2e4\ud788 \ud558\uc5ec\uc57c\ub9cc \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uacb0\ub860\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc2e0\ub8b0\ub3c4\uc9c0\uc218\ub780 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc790\uac00 \ud45c\ubcf8\uc5d0 \ud589\ud55c \ucc98\uce58\ub098 \uce58\ub8cc\ub97c \uc804\uccb4 \ubaa8\uc9d1\ub2e8\uc5d0 \uac19\uc774 \uc2dc\ud589\ud588\uc744 \ub54c \ub611\uac19\uc740 \ud6a8\uacfc\uc640 \ubc18\uc751\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\ub9ac\ub77c\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \ud655\uc2e0\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294\uc9c0\ub97c \ub9d0\ud574\uc8fc\ub294 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uc2e0\ub8b0\ub3c4\uc9c0\uc218\ub294 \uc784\uc0c1\uc2dc\ud5d8\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uce58\ub8cc\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \ubbf8\ub798 \uc2e4\ud5d8\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \ub0b4\ub9b4 \ub54c \uacb0\uc815\uc801\uc774\uba70 \uc5f0\uad6c\ub97c \uc9c4\ud589\ud558\uba74\uc11c \uc81c\ud55c\uc0ac\ud56d\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc544\uc774\ub514\uc5b4\ub97c \uc8fc\uc5b4\uc57c\ub9cc \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uad00\uc2b5\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uacfc\ud559\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \uc720\uc758 \ud655\ub960\ub85c\uc368 \uc790\uc2e0\uc758 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ud559\uacc4\uc5d0 \ubcf4\uace0\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc720\uc758 \ud655\ub960\uc774 \uc2e0\ub8b0\ub3c4\uc9c0\uc218\uc640 \ube44\uc2b7\ud558\uae30\ub294 \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uac19\uc740 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uac04\uc8fc\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \uc548 \ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub2e4\uc2dc \ub9d0\ud574 \uc774 \ub458\uc758 \ucc28\uc774\ub780, \uc720\uc758 \ud655\ub960\uc774 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc790\uc758 \uc5f0\uad6c \uacb0\uacfc\ubb3c\uc774 95% \uc815\ud655\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\ub9cc\uc744 \uc758\ubbf8\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc5d0 \ubc18\ud574 \uc2e0\ub8b0\ub3c4\uc9c0\uc218\ub294 \uadf8\ub4e4\uc758 \uc5f0\uad6c \uacb0\uacfc\uac00 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \uc815\ud655\ud55c\uc9c0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \ub9d0\ud574\uc8fc\ub294 \uac83\uc5d0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0b4\ud3b4\ubcf4\uc558\ub4ef\uc774, \uc720\uc758 \ud655\ub960 \uacc4\uc0b0\uc744 \uacb0\uc815\uc9d3\ub294 \uc694\uc18c\ub294 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\ud45c\ubcf8 \ud06c\uae30 \u2013\ud45c\ubcf8 \ud06c\uae30\uac00 \ud06c\uba74 \ud074\uc218\ub85d \ub354 \uc815\ud655\ud55c \uacb0\uacfc\uac00 \ub098\uc62c \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<li>\ubc18\uc751 \ube48\ub3c4 \u2013 \ucc98\uce58\ub098 \uce58\ub8cc\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud45c\ubcf8\uc758 \ud2b9\uc815\ud55c \ubc18\uc751\uc774 \ud06c\uba74 \ud074\uc218\ub85d \uc5f0\uad6c \uacb0\uacfc\ubb3c\uc740 \ub354\uc6b1 \uc815\ud655\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<li>\ubaa8\uc9d1\ub2e8 \ud06c\uae30 \u2013 \uc5f0\uad6c\ub300\uc0c1\uc778 \ubaa8\uc9d1\ub2e8\uc774 \uc791\uc744 \ub54c\ub9cc \uc911\uc694\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\ubca0\uc774\uc9c0\uc548 \ud655\ub960(Bayesian probabilities)\uc5d0 \uae30\ubc18\uc744 \ub458 \uc218\uc788\ub294 \uc2e0\ub8b0\ub3c4\uc9c0\uc218\ub97c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0a0\ub550 \ub2e4\uc74c\uc758 \uc0ac\ud56d\ub4e4\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud574\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\ubb34\uc791\uc704 \ubcc0\uc218\ub4e4 \u2013 \uc815\ubcf4\uc758 \uacb0\uc5ec\uc5d0\uc11c \uae30\uc778\ud55c \ubbf8\uc9c0\uc758 \uc694\uc18c\ub4e4<\/li>\n<li>\uc0ac\uc804 \ud655\ub960 \u2013 \uc774\uc6a9 \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uc815\ubcf4\ub97c \uace0\ub824<\/li>\n<li>\uac00\uc124 \uc9c4\uc2e4 \u2013 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc790\uc758 \uac00\uc124\uc774 \uc9c4\uc2e4\uc77c\uc9c0 \uac70\uc9d3\uc77c \uc9c0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud655\ub960<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><strong>\uc720\uc758 \ud655\ub960\ub85c \uacb0\uacfc\ubb3c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uba85\ubd84 \uc138\uc6b0\uae30<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>\uad00\ub840\ub85c \uacfc\ud559\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \ud1b5\uacc4\ud559\uc801 \uc720\uc758 \ud655\ub960\uc774 0.05\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc791\uc744 \ub54c\uc5d0\ub9cc \uc790\uc2e0\uc758 \uc5f0\uad6c \uacb0\uacfc\ubb3c\uc774 \ucd9c\ud310 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\uba70, \uc720\uc758 \ud655\ub960\uc774 \uc790\uc2e0\uc758 \uc5f0\uad6c \uacb0\uacfc\ubb3c\uc774 \uc720\ud6a8\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \ub2e4\ub978 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc790\ub4e4\uc5d0\uac8c \uc54c\ub824\uc900\ub2e4\uace0 \uac04\uc8fc\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub9cc\uc57d \uc720\uc758 \ud655\ub960\uc774 0.05\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud06c\ub2e4\uba74, \uc5f0\uad6c\uc790\ub8cc\ub97c \ucd9c\ud310\ud558\ub824\ub294 \uc2dc\ub3c4\ub3c4 \ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc591\uc0c1\uc774 \uacb0\uad6d \uc18c\uc911\ud558\uace0 \uac12\uc788\ub294 \uc5f0\uad6c\uac00 \ubb38\ud5cc\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \ub0a8\uc9c0 \uc54a\uac8c \ub418\ub294 \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \uc77c\uc73c\ud0a8\ub2e4\ub294 \ubc18\ubc15\ub3c4 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\ub2e8\uc21c\ud788 \uc720\uc758 \ud655\ub960\ub85c \uc5f0\uad6c \uacb0\uacfc\ubb3c\uc758 \ucd9c\ud310\uc744 \uacb0\uc815\uc9d3\ub294 \ub370\uc5d0\ub294 \uc5ec\ub7ec \ubb38\uc81c\ub97c \uc77c\uc73c\ud0b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4, \u201c\uc870\uc808\ubcc0\uc218 \ubd84\uc11d\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ucde8\uce68 \uc2dc\uac04\uc758 \ub192\uc740 \uc628\ub3c4\ub294 \ub0ae\uc740 \uc218\uba74 \ud6a8\uc728\uc131\uacfc \uad00\ub828\ub418\uc5b4 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ub4dc\ub7ec\ub0ac\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. (b=-11.6 pp; p=0.020)\u201d\ub77c\ub294 \uc815\ubcf4 \ubcf4\uace0\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uac00\uc815\ud569\uc2dc\ub2e4. \uc774 \ubb38\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \uc720\uc758 \ud655\ub960\uc774 0.05\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc791\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \uc54c \uc218 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uacfc\uc5f0 \uc774\uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc774 \uc9c4\uc220\uc758 \uc9c4\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \uc758\ubbf8\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc744\uae4c\uc694?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>2016\ub144 \ubbf8\uad6d \ud1b5\uacc4\ud559 \ud611\ud68c\ub294 \uc720\uc758 \ud655\ub960 \uc0ac\uc6a9\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc774\uc6a9 \uc9c0\uce68\uc744 \ucd9c\ud310\ud558\uba70 \uc720\uc758 \ud655\ub960 \uc790\uccb4\uac00 \ubaa8\ub378\uc774\ub098 \uac00\uc124\uc744 \uc785\uc99d\ud558\ub294 \uc88b\uc740 \ucc99\ub3c4\ub97c \uc81c\uacf5\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4\uace0 \uacbd\uace0\ud558\uc600\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\uac83\uc740 \uc720\uc758 \ud655\ub960\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \ubb3c\uc74c\uc5d0 \ub2f5\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\uc5f0\uad6c \ud45c\ubcf8\uc774 \ubaa8\uc9d1\ub2e8\uc744 \ub300\ud45c\ud558\ub294\uac00.<\/li>\n<li>\uc5f0\uad6c\ub41c \uac00\uc124\uc774 \uc9c4\uc2e4\uc778\uac00 \ud639\uc740 \uac70\uc9d3\uc778\uac00.<\/li>\n<li>\ub370\uc774\ud130\uac00 \uc6b0\uc5f0\uc5d0 \uc758\ud574 \uc0dd\uc131\ub418\uc5c8\ub294\uac00.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\ub530\ub77c\uc11c \ubbf8\uad6d \ud1b5\uacc4\ud559 \ud611\ud68c\ub294 \uc720\uc758 \ud655\ub960\uc774 \uacfc\ud559\uc801 \ucd94\ub860\uc744 \ub300\uc2e0\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\uc73c\uba70, \ud6cc\ub96d\ud55c \uc5f0\uad6c \uacc4\ud68d\uacfc \uc2e4\ud5d8 \uc2e4\ud589\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \ub9ce\uc740 \ub2e4\ub978 \uc778\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \uc911\uc694\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \uacbd\uace0\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uacb0\ub860\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc720\uc758 \ud655\ub960\uacfc \uc5f0\uad00\ub41c \ubaa8\ub4e0 \uc7c1\uc810 \uc0ac\ud56d\ub4e4\uc740 \uc774\uc804\uc758 \ubb38\ud5cc\uacfc \ub9e5\ub77d\uc0c1 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